The Young Men Problem
Why AI Unemployment Could Kill 50 Million People
What happens to unemployed young men when their futures disappear?
History Speaks
When young men lose work, violence follows. Always.
Pressure Builds
Technology moves fast; society lags and cracks.
Pressure Builds
Technology moves fast; society lags and cracks.
Youth Surplus
Too many young men, too few paths forward.
Violence Follows
Status collapses, anger rises, conflict erupts.
Violence Follows
Status collapses, anger rises, conflict erupts.
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By Aamir Butt
Blog 2 of 10 in The Great Threshold series.
The Pattern That Never Fails
History teaches a brutal lesson. When societies have high unemployment among young men, violence is sure to follow. Always. And we're about to create the largest population of unemployed young men in human history.
Arab Spring (2011): Youth unemployment hit 25-30%. Result: civil wars, 500,000+ deaths in Syria alone.
Weimar Germany: Post-WWI unemployment drove young men to Nazism. Result: World War II, 70-85 million deaths.
Syrian Civil War: Drought drove rural youth to cities with no jobs. ISIS recruited thousands. 500,000+ dead.
The mechanism is clear: young men who are wired for status competition and who can’t achieve it legitimately, often turn to force. When you can't work, marry, or build a future, violence becomes rational.
Why AI Makes This Exponentially Worse
By 2035, AI could displace 40-60% of global jobs. That is 1.5-2 billion workers. Concentrated among them are hundreds of millions of young men with no prospects, no marriage pathways, no stake in society.
Meet Marcus: A Statistic With a Face
He's 24, lives in Lagos, graduated top of his class in computer science in 2032. By 2033, AI writes better code. Junior positions go to AI systems that work 24/7 and never need a salary. His girlfriend leaves because she needs financial stability. His savings vanish by 2034.
Marcus spends days online with unemployed young men sharing grievances. Protests erupt. Police use AI-enhanced crowd control. Government declares emergency measures. By 2035, Marcus faces a choice: stay in authoritarian Lagos with no prospects, attempt dangerous migration, or join armed groups promising purpose.
Now, multiply Marcus by 50 million young men globally.
The Cruel Math
Conservative scenario: 5-10 million deaths from urban insurrection and regional conflicts.
Moderate scenario: 10-25 million deaths from simultaneous civil wars and refugee conflicts.
Severe scenario: 50+ million deaths from cascading state failures and WMD terrorism.
These may sound like science fiction, but they're historical precedent scaled to AI disruption.
The Solution We're Ignoring
The solution already exists: Universal Basic Income.
Tax AI productivity gains through automation taxes and sovereign wealth funds. Distribute as a citizen dividend. $2,000-3,000 monthly in developed nations, adjusted globally.
The economics work. AI creates massive productivity.
"It causes inflation"—only if supply-constrained, but AI expands supply.
"It makes people lazy"—pilots in Kenya and Finland show opposite: recipients start businesses and pursue education.
"We can't afford it"—we can't afford NOT to.
The Parallel Timeline
In the parallel timeline with UBI, Marcus receives $500/month. He learns AI orchestration through free courses. By 2036, he's managing AI systems, augmented rather than replaced. His girlfriend stays. Nigeria remains stable. No one dies in riots that never happen.
The difference: political will.
Why This Probably Won't Happen
I estimate only 40-60% probability of adequate UBI in developed nations by 2040. Only 20-30% globally.
Why?
Wealth concentration creates political opposition. Cultural resistance stigmatizes "welfare." Coordinating it globally is nearly impossible.
What you can do:
Make UBI a voting litmus test.
Push for pilot programs.
Support automation taxes.
Organize and advocate.
The 'young men problem' is demographic destiny meeting technological disruption. History already shows us what happens next. The only question is whether we prevent it.
We can pay for UBI now, or pay for civil wars later. The second option costs more in every currency that matters: money, lives, and civilization itself.
Social collapse isn’t inevitable, but inaction is a choice. If you don’t have a strategy for the coming unemployment shock, now is the time to build one.