Taiwan and the ASI Arms Race

By Aamir Butt

Blog 5 of 10 in The Great Threshold series.

There's a small island producing 90% of the world's most advanced computer chips. Those chips power the AI systems that will determine who achieves ASI first. Three nuclear powers—US, China, and potentially Russia—view control of this island as existential priority.

Welcome to Taiwan: the most dangerous place on Earth.

Why Taiwan Matters More Than You Realize

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces over 90% of advanced semiconductors below 10 nanometers—the cutting-edge chips enabling frontier AI development. Without these chips, AGI timeline extends by years or decades. With these chips, ASI arrives potentially within the decade.

Control of TSMC means control of ASI development timeline. That makes Taiwan the most strategically vital territory on Earth—more important than oil fields, more critical than nuclear arsenals.

China's Perspective: Non-Negotiable Reunification

For China, Taiwan reunification is:

• Historical imperative tied to "century of humiliation" reversal

• CCP legitimacy foundation—party promises completion of reunification

• National identity core—Taiwan seen as renegade province, not sovereign nation

• Strategic necessity—Taiwan independence sets precedent for Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong

Xi Jinping has stated reunification "cannot be passed down generation after generation." Timeline: likely 2027-2035 window based on military modernization and political factors.

US Perspective: Strategic and Economic Necessity

For the US, defending Taiwan is:

• Treaty obligation—Taiwan Relations Act commits to defense

• Semiconductor dependency—losing TSMC cripples US tech sector and military

• Containment strategy—preventing China from breaking First Island Chain

• Credibility test—abandoning Taiwan signals weakness to all allies

Biden stated four times the US would defend Taiwan militarily—unprecedented clarity breaking decades of "strategic ambiguity."

The ASI Arms Race Dynamic

This isn't just about semiconductors for consumer electronics. It's about who achieves ASI first wins decisively.

ASI provides:

• Military supremacy—autonomous weapons, perfect targeting, unbeatable strategy

• Economic dominance—productivity explosion, technological leadership

• Intelligence advantage—code-breaking, surveillance, prediction

• Diplomatic leverage—knowing adversary's plans better than they do

First-mover advantage with ASI is potentially absolute. Second place might be permanent subordination.

Why This Is More Dangerous Than Nuclear Arms Race

Nuclear weapons gave us decades to develop deterrence theory. ASI compresses timeline dramatically:

Nuclear weapons:

• Take years to build (fissile material production)

• Visible through satellites (test detection)

• Deterrence works (mutually assured destruction)

• Both sides retain second-strike capability

ASI:

• Develops in weeks once AGI crossed (recursive self-improvement)

• Invisible (happens in data centers)

• Might enable first-strike advantage (perfect targeting eliminates retaliation)

• Winner-take-all dynamics (no second place)

This creates "use it or lose it" pressure exponentially worse than nuclear.

The 2027-2035 Window

Strategic analysts estimate 30-50% probability of military conflict over Taiwan between 2027-2035. Why this window?

China's perspective:

• Military modernization peaks around 2027-2030

• Demographic decline begins (aging population reduces military capability)

• Economic slowdown increases domestic pressure for external victory

• Window closes as US strengthens Pacific defenses

US perspective:

• Current military advantage eroding as China modernizes

• TSMC increasingly vulnerable to Chinese pressure

• AI development accelerates, raising stakes

• Alliance system in flux (Japan rearming, AUKUS forming)

How War Would Unfold (And Why It's Terrifying)

Phase 1: Fait Accompli Attempt China launches massive invasion attempting quick victory before US intervention. Amphibious assault, airborne drops, missile barrages. Goal: Present US with accomplished fact.

Phase 2: US Response US honors treaty obligations, engages militarily. Naval blockade, air superiority operations, long-range strikes. Japan likely involved (bases in Okinawa essential).

Phase 3: Escalation Dynamics

• ASI-enhanced weapons systems operating at algorithm-speed

• Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure (power grids, communications)

• Drone swarms numbering millions

• Biological weapons possibility

• Nuclear arsenals on hair-trigger

Phase 4: The Nightmare Scenarios

Scenario A: Conventional Stalemate Prolonged conflict, millions dead, Taiwan devastated. TSMC destroyed regardless of winner—nobody gets the prize. ASI timeline set back decades for everyone. Casualties: 5-20 million.

Scenario B: Limited Nuclear Exchange Tactical nukes used in desperation. Escalates to limited strategic exchange. Casualties: 50-500 million. Nuclear winter possible.

Scenario C: Full Exchange Both sides launch full arsenals believing "use them or lose them." Casualties: 1-5 billion. Civilization ends.

Probability Assessment

My estimates:

• Conflict probability 2027-2035: 30-50%

• If conflict, US intervention: 80-90%

• If US intervenes, escalation to limited nuclear: 15-25%

• If limited nuclear, escalation to full exchange: 10-20%

Compound probability of Taiwan conflict triggering nuclear war: 1-4%

Sounds small. But 1-4% per decade compounds. Over 30 years: 3-12% chance. Those are unacceptable odds for civilization.

The ASI Arms Race Makes Everything Worse

Both nations now race to AGI/ASI knowing winner gains decisive advantage. This creates:

Shorter decision timelines → algorithms recommend preemptive strikes before adversary achieves ASI

Hair-trigger systems → AI early warning might launch on ambiguous data

First-strike calculations → ASI might calculate scenarios where preemptive nuclear strike eliminates retaliation capability

Opacity and miscalculation → Neither side fully understands adversary's AI capabilities, leading to dangerous assumptions

What Preventing This Requires

Diplomatic off-ramps:

• Maintain status quo as long as possible

• Neither independence declaration (Taiwan) nor invasion (China)

• Crisis communication channels (like Cold War hotline)

Military deterrence without provocation:

• Clear red lines but not inflammatory posturing

• Defense capability without aggressive deployments

• Reassure allies without threatening China

AI safety cooperation:

• US-China agreement that ASI too dangerous for arms race

• Shared interest in preventing mutually suicidal competition

• Track-2 diplomacy establishing common ground

Economic interdependence:

• Trade relationships raising cost of war

• Supply chain integration

• Mutual vulnerability creating restraint

Current trajectory: insufficient on all fronts.

What You Can Do

This isn't abstract geopolitics, it's existential risk within decade. Your actions matter:

• Vote for politicians understanding Taiwan-ASI connection and prioritizing diplomacy.

• Advocate for US-China AI safety dialogue despite broader tensions.

• Educate others about stakes—most people don't understand the semiconductor-ASI-Taiwan linkage.

• Support organizations working on conflict prevention and AI governance.

• Prepare personally, understand risks, have resilience plans, but don't panic.

The Stakes

Taiwan isn't just about democracy vs. authoritarianism, or great power competition, or even semiconductors for iPhones.

It's about who achieves ASI first, and whether we achieve it at all before blowing ourselves up fighting over the capability to achieve it.

That makes a small island in the Pacific the linchpin of human civilization's survival or extinction.

"The most dangerous place on Earth isn't where the bombs are. It's where the bombs might be triggered by the race to build gods."